ANALISIS RISIKO KRITERIA INVESTASI PADA MODEL ALIRAN KAS PROYEK PERUMAHAN DI DAERAH PERBATASAN KABUPATEN/KOTA DENPASAR
Abstrak
The cash flow Model of investment projects in the field of housing is attractive to be observed, thus several most rational alternative can be selected. Conditions in the border area of Denpasar city has not found any research on investment risk analysis in the field of housing. Therefore, this research is very important to implement so that it can give consideration to the investor in investing. The objective of this research is to determine the project cash flow model on the housing investment in border area of Denpasar City. Data collection process begins with survey data in the office of REI (Real Estate Indonesia) Bali branch and developers of housing projects in border area of Denpasar City. Data collection using questionnaire and developer as the respondents. The analysis was carried out on two investment models namely model 1 (100% loan capital) and model 2 (30% own capital and 70% loan capital), while the investment valuation control uses NPV and BCR with the risk analysis using the @risk program. The analysis shows that Model 1 does not meet the investment criteria because the value of NPV <0 and BCR <1, so it is not feasible to be chosen. Model 2 has a value of NPV> 0 and BCR> 1, so it is eligible to be chosen. The results of the risk analysis with the @risk program for model 2 has a probability of NPV > 0 is 76.4% and the probability of BCR > 1 is 77.1%. This means that the cash flow model has the greatest opportunity to obtain greater profits. Model aliran kas proyek investasi di bidang perumahan menarik untuk diamati, sehingga beberapa alternatif investasi yang paling rasional dapat dipilih. Untuk kondisi di daerah perbatasan Kota Denpasar belum ditemukan adanya kajian tentang analisis risiko investasi dalam bidang perumahan. Oleh karena itu penelitian ini sangat penting untuk dilaksanakan sehingga dapat memberikan pertimbangan kepada investor dalam berinvestasi. Tujuan pada penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui model aliran kas proyek pada investasi perumahan di daerah perbatasan Kota Denpasar. Proses pengumpulan data diawali dengan survey data di kantor REI (Real Estate Indonesia) cabang Bali dan beberapa pengembang proyek perumahan di daerah perbatasan Kota Denpasar. Pengumpulan data menggunakan kuisioner dan pengembang sebagai respondennya. Analisis dilakukan terhadap dua model investasi yaitu model 1 (100% modal pinjaman) dan model 2 (30% modal sendiri dan 70% modal pinjaman), sedangkan kontrol penilaian investasi menggunakan NPV dan BCR dengan analisis risikonya menggunakan program @risk. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model 1 tidak memenuhi kriteria investasi, karena nilai NPV < 0 dan BCR < 1, sehingga tidak layak untuk dipilih. Model 2 memiliki nilai NPV > 0 dan BCR > 1, sehingga layak untuk dipilih. Hasil analisis risiko dengan program @risk untuk model 2 memiliki nilai probabilitas NPV > 0 sebesar 76.4% dan probabilitas BCR > 1 sebesar 77.1%. Hal ini berarti bahwa aliran kas model tersebut memiliki peluang paling besar untuk memperoleh keuntungan yang lebih besar.Referensi
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